Trump’s Peace Plan Leaves Europe Vulnerable
For those entrenched in self-righteous echo chambers, this week has been a harsh wake-up call. Donald Trump has fully turned against Ukraine, accusing it of prolonging the war with Russia. He went as far as suggesting Kyiv should hold elections while labeling President Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator. His position is clear—he views Ukraine’s decision to fight Russia as a mistake.
The most crucial decision facing European leaders right now is not about Ukraine itself but about their own preparedness to fill the security gap left by a retreating United States. While the US will not entirely abandon its commitments, it will significantly reduce its role, leaving Europe dangerously exposed to potential future threats from Russia.
This is a critical moment for European leaders to demonstrate focus and resolve—qualities that have been lacking. The first step must be a concrete, multi-year strategy to strengthen defense capabilities to a level that ensures credible deterrence. Whether this takes the form of a defense spending target as a percentage of GDP or a more ambitious initiative based on defense capabilities, decisive action is needed now. Furthermore, Europe should prioritize domestic arms production rather than deepening its reliance on the US. Companies like Rheinmetall are already ramping up ammunition production, and Germany’s declining industrial activity could create additional manufacturing capacity.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was correct in asserting that it is too early to discuss peacekeeping in Ukraine. By contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron’s poorly conceived summit only served to highlight Europe’s disunity, culminating in Scholz’s dramatic exit and public criticism of the event. This presents an opportunity for Mark Rutte, the new NATO Secretary-General, to exhibit the leadership that national figures have thus far failed to provide.
The European Union must reconnect with reality. It was a serious misstep for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to declare Ukraine the EU’s political priority. In truth, the EU has little control over events in Ukraine and is not even at the negotiating table. Instead, the Commission should focus on its actual mandate—the European economy—which is in dire need of attention.
Europe remains in a state of shock, largely due to the pervasive echo chamber effect. Earlier this week on BBC’s Newsnight, a persistent and misleading narrative was once again repeated—that if Ukraine holds on just a little longer, Russia will collapse. Respected newspapers have also pushed the claim that Russia’s war economy will inevitably trigger hyperinflation. While economic pressure may take its toll eventually, Russia has proven more resilient than many analysts expected. As John Maynard Keynes might have put it, Russia can remain liquid longer than its adversaries can maintain their illusions—especially when those adversaries continue buying its oil.
Calls for increased Western financial aid to Ukraine persist. Whether Ukraine could have won under different strategic decisions is a matter for historians to debate. However, early claims of an imminent Ukrainian victory always seemed dubious, particularly given the EU’s half-hearted sanctions against Russia. Nations that prioritize comfort over confrontation do not win wars.
None of this should have come as a surprise. Trump may have been ineffective in his first term, but he made his intentions clear. EU leaders simply chose to ignore him. Five years ago, they similarly failed to leverage the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis to create a much-needed fiscal, banking, and capital markets union—an oversight that now hampers Europe’s ability to invest in its own security. Weakness, ultimately, is a choice.
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