As US and Canada Trade Barbs, Mexico’s Sheinbaum Navigates Trump Relationship with Poise
In a move that underscored the stark contrast in Washington’s treatment of its northern and southern neighbors, President Donald Trump announced a temporary postponement of tariffs on Mexico, taking the opportunity to commend Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.
“I did this as an accommodation, and out of respect for President Sheinbaum,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “Our relationship has been a very good one, and we are working hard, together, on the border.”
His praise stood in sharp contrast to his rhetoric toward Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whom he continues to mock as “Governor Trudeau” while derisively referring to Canada as “the 51st State.” The tension between the US and Canada remains high, with Trudeau labeling Trump’s tariff policies “dumb,” and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent responding by calling Trudeau a “numbskull.”
The difference in tone toward Mexico and Canada has not gone unnoticed. Supporters of Sheinbaum view it as evidence of her ability to manage an unpredictable Trump administration, steering away from confrontational exchanges while maintaining Mexico’s interests. Since taking office, she has reassured Mexicans to “remain calm” regarding Trump, emphasizing that “cooler heads will prevail.” So far, her approach appears to be working.
Sheinbaum’s Diplomatic Maneuvers
Twice in as many months, Sheinbaum has successfully averted a sweeping 25% tariff on Mexican exports by engaging in direct negotiations with Trump—despite his prior insistence that there was “no room” for discussions. Her ability to engage diplomatically appears to have earned Trump’s appreciation for her clarity and measured responses.
Sheinbaum has resisted publicly conceding that Mexico is failing in key areas Trump has targeted—such as fentanyl trafficking and undocumented migration. On Thursday, she highlighted recent US Customs and Border Protection data showing a significant reduction in fentanyl seizures, down 75% over the last six months, to their lowest levels in three years.
In February, when tariffs were temporarily averted, Sheinbaum agreed to deploy 10,000 troops to the US-Mexico border. Her administration has also extradited—or as her officials prefer to say, “expelled”—29 cartel figures to the US for prosecution, including notorious drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero, wanted by US authorities since the 1980s. These actions appear to have helped maintain a cooperative tone in Trump’s remarks about Mexico.
Shifting Responsibility Back to the US
Sheinbaum has also taken a strategic stance in framing border security as a shared responsibility. She frequently points out that while drugs may originate in Latin America, the demand overwhelmingly comes from the US. Likewise, she has challenged the US to address the flow of weapons southward, which fuels cartel violence.
When the Trump administration recently designated six Mexican cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations,” it unexpectedly provided leverage for Sheinbaum’s government. Mexico is currently engaged in a legal battle against US gun manufacturers, arguing negligence in allowing firearms to be trafficked into Mexico. The new terrorist classification, Sheinbaum suggested, could bolster Mexico’s case by introducing charges of complicity with designated terror groups.
Navigating Unstable Waters
Despite her early successes, observers caution that Sheinbaum’s tenure in handling Trump is just beginning.
“I think she has played the hand she has been dealt pretty well,” said Mexican economist Valeria Moy. “But it’s too soon to celebrate. She has done what she can to neutralize the tariff threat, but a trade war would be harmful to both sides.”
Sheinbaum’s strategy has been to hold firm on key issues without appearing subservient to Trump’s demands. While some disputes—like Trump’s unilateral renaming of the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America”—can be brushed off as political theater, others, such as tariffs, carry real economic risks. The ongoing uncertainty has already caused fluctuations in the Mexican peso, reflecting investor unease.
Mexico remains the US’s largest trading partner, making economic stability a critical priority. While Sheinbaum insists the country’s economy is strong, financial markets would prefer a more predictable and stable relationship between the two nations.
The Road Ahead
During her presidential campaign, Sheinbaum made it clear she was prepared to work with a second Trump administration. “We must always defend our country and our sovereignty,” she told reporters, emphasizing her commitment to representing Mexico’s interests, including those of millions of Mexicans residing in the US.
With Trump’s presidency still in its early weeks, the dynamic between the US, Mexico, and Canada is still evolving. The renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement next year will be a key test of Sheinbaum’s diplomatic approach. For now, amid the turbulent rhetoric, Sheinbaum appears to be navigating the Trump administration more smoothly than Trudeau—at least for the moment.
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