As US and Canada Exchange Jabs, Mexico's Sheinbaum Holds Steady
In a move that underscores the contrasting relationships the US maintains with its North American neighbors, President Donald Trump announced a one-month delay on imposing certain tariffs on Mexico. In doing so, he made a point of commending Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.
"I did this as an accommodation, and out of respect for, President Sheinbaum," Trump stated on his social media platform, Truth Social. "Our relationship has been a very good one, and we are working hard, together, on the border."
His praise for Sheinbaum stands in stark contrast to the dismissive language he has directed at Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whom he derisively refers to as "Governor Trudeau" while labeling Canada as "the 51st State."
This ongoing war of words between the US and Canada is far from diplomatic, with Trudeau condemning Trump's tariff policy as "dumb," prompting US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to fire back by calling him a "numbskull."
The difference in tone could not be more apparent. Sheinbaum’s supporters interpret the amicable relationship as a testament to her deft handling of an unpredictable US leader, who is known for making sweeping declarations only to later scale them back. From the outset, Sheinbaum has urged calm, insisting that "cooler heads will prevail."
So far, her approach appears to be paying off.
Mexico's Success in Fending Off Tariffs
For the second time in as many months, Sheinbaum has successfully prevented the implementation of a 25% tariff on Mexican exports by securing a last-minute phone call with Trump. Despite his initial insistence that negotiations were off the table, her diplomatic efforts have seemingly won him over.
Her administration has taken significant steps to address Trump’s core concerns—fentanyl trafficking and undocumented migration. At a recent press briefing, she cited US Customs and Border Protection data showing fentanyl seizures at their lowest levels in three years—a 75% decline in the last six months. She also deployed 10,000 troops to the border in February to bolster enforcement efforts.
Additionally, Mexico has extradited 29 cartel figures to the US to face charges, including infamous drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero, who had been wanted by American authorities for decades. These actions likely contributed to Trump’s remark that the two nations were "working hard, together" on border security.
Turning the Tables on the US
While Sheinbaum has taken decisive action on border-related issues, she has not hesitated to hold the US accountable for its role in the crisis. She has repeatedly questioned the source of the weapons arming Mexican cartels, calling on the US to curb the flow of firearms southward and address domestic drug demand.
When the Trump administration designated six Mexican cartels as "foreign terrorist organizations," it inadvertently strengthened Sheinbaum’s hand. Her government is currently engaged in a legal battle with US gun manufacturers over their alleged negligence in allowing weapons to fall into criminal hands. If those same cartels are now officially labeled as terrorist groups, Mexico could argue that US weapons manufacturers have been complicit in arming terrorists, opening the door to an expanded lawsuit.
A Promising Start, but Uncertain Future
Despite her early successes in navigating relations with Trump, experts caution that it is too soon to declare victory. "She has played the hand she was dealt well," said Mexican economist Valeria Moy. "But we shouldn’t celebrate just yet. Avoiding tariffs makes sense for both sides, but the long-term relationship remains unpredictable."
Sheinbaum has so far managed to stand firm on key issues without appearing subservient to the White House. But the balancing act is delicate. While she can afford to ignore Trump's symbolic provocations—such as his unilateral renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the "Gulf of America"—more substantial issues, such as tariffs, carry real economic consequences.
Mexico’s economy remains closely tied to the US, its largest trading partner, and continued uncertainty over tariffs could take a toll. The Mexican peso has weakened in response to recent tensions, and while Sheinbaum insists the economy remains strong, financial markets crave stability.
A Relationship Still in Its Infancy
Sheinbaum’s ability to manage Trump will be tested further in the months ahead. The renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement looms next year, promising more contentious discussions.
As the political drama between North America's three leaders plays out, one thing is clear: while Trudeau finds himself at odds with Washington, Sheinbaum has so far managed to maintain a more productive, if precarious, relationship with the Trump administration. Whether that dynamic will endure remains to be seen.
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