Germany is set to reject Starmer’s proposal for sending troops to Ukraine, as Europe remains divided over how to rewrite the peace deal.
Germany is expected to reject Sir Keir Starmer’s proposal to deploy a European peacekeeping force to Ukraine, causing a divide among European nations on the matter. As European leaders prepare to meet in Paris, a rift is becoming apparent. The UK and France are advocating for the deployment of soldiers to Kyiv, while Germany and Poland are likely to abstain. Italy and Norway remain undecided on their participation.
On Sunday, Prime Minister Starmer declared the UK’s willingness to send troops to Ukraine as part of a peace enforcement initiative. He will join key European leaders in a Paris meeting convened by French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the European response to Donald Trump’s negotiations with Vladimir Putin to end the war.
Meanwhile, US and Russian officials are preparing for high-level talks in Saudi Arabia, with the US State Department surveying European capitals about their potential contributions in terms of weapons and peacekeeping personnel. However, diplomatic sources indicate that Germany is unlikely to participate in any European-led peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. Poland has already ruled out its involvement, citing commitments to protecting NATO’s eastern flank. Hungary and Slovakia are also expected to abstain due to their close relations with the Kremlin. Many European nations, including Spain, Italy, and Norway, remain undecided, raising doubts about the feasibility of a peacekeeping mission.
Likely Participants in a Peacekeeping Role
United Kingdom: Prime Minister Starmer has expressed readiness to deploy British troops to Ukraine.
Other Nations: Denmark, France, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and Sweden have signaled their willingness to contribute troops and equipment to a joint defense initiative in Ukraine.
Undecided Nations
Norway: Although not an EU member, Norway participates in European defense projects, and its role in Ukraine remains unclear.
Nations Unlikely to Send Troops
Germany and Eastern Europe: Germany, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia have indicated their reluctance to participate in a peacekeeping mission. Spain’s foreign minister, José Manuel Albares, has asserted that sending troops is not currently under consideration due to the ongoing hostilities.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been cautious about European peacekeeping efforts, maintaining that sending German troops to Ukraine is "out of the question." At a recent NATO meeting, the US defense secretary emphasized that Europe would be responsible for maintaining any peace agreement negotiated by Washington. Additionally, Pete Hegseth clarified that any European peacekeeping force would not fall under NATO’s Article 5 protection.
Britain has taken the lead in European military support for Ukraine, pledging £3 billion annually until at least 2030. Starmer reaffirmed this commitment, stating that the UK is prepared to contribute to Ukraine’s security guarantees by deploying troops if necessary.
One potential avenue for deployment is the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a coalition of 10 Northern European NATO nations. A peacekeeping force comprising 40,000 to 50,000 troops could be formed from JEF’s members, including the Netherlands, the Scandinavian and Baltic states, and France. While unlikely to be positioned along the front lines, such a force could be stationed within Ukraine to deter potential violations of a ceasefire agreement.
Strategic Deployment Considerations
According to Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, the effectiveness of a peacekeeping force depends more on its deployment strategy than its overall size. Rather than covering the entire 1,200-km front line, it could be positioned strategically within Ukraine to respond to breaches of any peace agreement.
Germany’s Cautious Approach
The concept of deploying Western troops to Ukraine was initially proposed by President Macron last year but was largely dismissed as too risky. Chancellor Scholz reiterated his opposition, asserting that Germany would not send soldiers to Ukraine. He also declined to provide long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, as their operation would require German military personnel on the ground.
Despite being a key supporter of Ukraine, Germany has taken a measured approach to military assistance, fearing broader Western involvement in the conflict. However, with upcoming elections, Scholz faces political pressure from the center-right CDU, which has been more supportive of military aid to Ukraine.
The Challenge of Forming a Peacekeeping Force
At the Paris meeting, President Macron is expected to reaffirm his commitment to deploying Western troops to Ukraine. A multinational battle group would likely be necessary to enforce a ceasefire along the extensive front line. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested that 200,000 international troops would be required to uphold any peace agreement. However, assembling a force of this scale without American support appears improbable.
European military resources have diminished significantly since the Cold War, raising doubts about the feasibility of maintaining a long-term peacekeeping presence in Ukraine. Former British Army Chief Lord Dannatt has noted that the UK lacks the manpower and equipment for a prolonged deployment. Similarly, former Defence Secretary Sir Ben Wallace has questioned whether the UK’s planned increase in defense spending to 2.5% of GDP would be adequate to sustain a peacekeeping mission.
Conclusion
As European leaders convene in Paris, the prospect of deploying a European peacekeeping force to Ukraine remains uncertain. While the UK and France advocate for action, Germany and Poland’s reluctance complicates the initiative. The feasibility of such a mission hinges on securing broader European participation and resolving logistical and financial challenges. Without American involvement, enforcing a peace agreement in Ukraine may prove difficult, leaving European capitals divided on the next steps.
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