Germany’s Election Winner Merz Vows to Lead Europe Amid Declining US Involvement

• Feb 25, 2025

After securing victory in Germany's federal elections, Friedrich Merz, leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is wasting no time in addressing Europe's future. As he prepares to form a government, one of his primary concerns is Germany's role within the European Union at a time of decreasing US engagement.

At a press conference following his party's win with 28% of the vote, Merz warned that Europe was at a critical juncture, describing the situation as “five to midnight for Europe.” He pointed to growing indications that US interest in Europe is waning, particularly under President Donald Trump’s administration.

Strengthening European Alliances

Merz emphasized the need for stronger intra-European cooperation to counterbalance the US's shifting stance on security and foreign policy. He cited strong ties with French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk as a potential foundation for a more self-reliant Europe.

“Europe is united,” Merz stated, while cautioning that if US policies continue in the direction of “America Alone” rather than “America First,” the transatlantic alliance could face significant challenges.

More Support for Ukraine

On the issue of Ukraine, Merz has positioned himself as more assertive than outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He has expressed willingness to provide Kyiv with additional military support, including the possibility of sending long-range Taurus missiles—a move Scholz consistently ruled out.

European leaders, including Macron and Starmer, have floated the idea of deploying peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in the event of a negotiated settlement with Russia. While Merz has not dismissed the concept outright, he has said it remains "too early to consider." He stressed that the war must end with Ukraine maintaining the capability to defend itself.

Regarding NATO, Merz raised questions about the alliance’s future structure, stating in a post-election debate that its current form may not remain intact by the next summit in June. However, he later clarified that NATO "continues to function well" and that he intends to strengthen its European pillar.

Challenges in Forming a Government

Foreign and security policy will be central to Merz’s government agenda, but he must first navigate complex coalition negotiations. Talks with the Social Democrats (SPD) will be crucial, as will securing financial resources to invest in Ukraine and Germany's defense.

Jana Puglierin, head of the European Council of Foreign Relations in Berlin, noted that while Merz appears committed to Germany’s security role, finding the necessary funds may prove difficult. To relax Germany’s debt brake or establish a second special defense fund, he would need support from either the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) or the far-left Die Linke (The Left) party—both of which remain opposed to such reforms.

The AfD, which ran on a "Germany First" platform and advocates disengagement from Ukraine, is poised to become the largest opposition party in parliament. Their opposition to increasing defense spending and re-establishing ties with Russia adds another layer of complexity to Merz’s agenda.

Germany's Role in a Changing Europe

As the most populous nation in the European Union and a key NATO member, Germany’s foreign policy decisions will have far-reaching implications. The country has been Ukraine's second-largest weapons supplier after the US, and Merz’s leadership could shape Europe’s geopolitical strategy for years to come.

With US involvement in Europe seemingly diminishing, Merz faces the challenge of uniting European allies while securing domestic political backing for his ambitious security and defense plans.