Five Key Unknowns About a Possible Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal

• Feb 28, 2025

As Zelenskyy Heads to Washington to Meet Trump, Major Questions Remain

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepares for a crucial meeting with former U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, uncertainty lingers over the future of Ukraine’s war with Russia. Here are five critical aspects of a potential peace agreement that remain unresolved:

1) Will Vladimir Putin Honor Any Agreement? There is widespread skepticism in Kyiv about Putin’s intentions. His full-scale invasion in 2022 marked Europe’s most significant conflict since World War II. While Russian forces continue their offensive in eastern Ukraine, recent reports suggest their advance may be slowing. According to Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Putin remains committed to expanding Russia’s influence and has ambitions extending to former Soviet-aligned states, including the Baltic nations and Poland. Many fear that even if he agrees to a ceasefire, he could use it as a strategic pause before launching further attacks. To prevent this, Ukraine is seeking robust security guarantees.

2) What Will Happen to Occupied Ukrainian Territory? Russia currently controls approximately 20% of Ukraine’s land, including Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. Moscow has also claimed four additional regions—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—as part of Russia, though these annexations remain unrecognized internationally. Putin insists Ukraine must accept the current battlefield realities, signaling an unwillingness to return captured territories. Zelenskyy has suggested he may be open to discussions involving land swaps, including small areas inside Russia’s Kursk region that Ukraine briefly controlled. However, the Kremlin has dismissed such proposals, stating it intends to eliminate Ukrainian forces in those areas. If Trump’s peace plan favors Russia’s territorial demands, Kyiv is expected to reject it outright.

3) How Would a European Peacekeeping Force Operate? Several key allies, including the UK, France, and Turkey, have expressed willingness to deploy troops to Ukraine under a peacekeeping or “peace-assurance” framework. Zelenskyy has indicated that at least 100,000 foreign troops would be necessary for effective security. However, NATO membership remains his preferred long-term safeguard, something Trump has opposed. Current proposals suggest that European forces would be stationed away from active combat zones, instead focusing on major cities. However, with Russia continuing missile and drone attacks on urban centers, including Kyiv, it is unclear how such a force would function—or how Putin might respond to its deployment.

4) Will the U.S. Guarantee Any Peace Deal? UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stressed the necessity of a U.S. security guarantee if European nations are to enforce any peace settlement. Trump, however, has suggested an alternative approach, proposing an economic arrangement where American investment in Ukraine’s resources would deter Russian aggression. The term “backstop” remains ambiguous—some believe it would entail NATO air support to shield Ukraine and its allies from further Russian attacks, while others suggest it would involve continued U.S. intelligence and satellite data sharing. Without American intelligence support, Ukraine’s military operations—and any international peacekeeping presence—would face significant challenges.

5) What Will Happen With the Ukraine-U.S. Minerals Deal? Negotiations over a potential minerals agreement between Ukraine and the U.S. have undergone multiple revisions. Initial proposals required Kyiv to pay Washington $500 billion in return for previous military aid—an arrangement critics likened to an imperialistic demand. This clause was later scrapped, with Zelenskyy maintaining that past U.S. assistance was a grant, not a loan. The latest draft of the agreement, which Trump and Zelenskyy are expected to discuss in Washington, remains vague. Some experts view it as a foundation for future American investment in Ukraine’s untapped mining sector. Others are skeptical, noting that while Ukraine possesses valuable reserves of lithium, titanium, and rare earth metals, many of these resources lie within Russian-occupied territories, making their exploitation uncertain for the foreseeable future.

As negotiations unfold, the details of any potential settlement remain fluid. The world watches closely to see if an agreement can be reached—and if it will hold.